Interesting article about a novel method for predicting the onset of a change. Summarized in Conclusions below.
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B9oPg7GYw1qnSHladDN1NFRvVE0
Conclusions
In this paper, we introduce a new method for identifying an
approaching transition in behavioral data. The idea is that the
complexity of behavioral signals usually resides in what social
scientists describe as ‘‘context’’, or what [22] in his classical work
describes as the totality of signals that directed the behavior of the
organism. A transition in the behavior of the signal is expected if
the context in which this signal is embedded undergoes changes in
itself. Using changes in the embedding dimension as an indication
of an approaching transition is therefore a shift from focusing on
the dynamics of the signal to the dynamics of the meta-system in
which it is subordinated. This idea is here tested for the first time
and currently under further developments. We also see a wide
applicability of the suggested optimal embedding transition
detection (OPERAND) approach. Changes in embedding as well
as transitivity dimension might also be able to detect important
transition points, e.g, in the climate system or in financial markets
[5].